How GOP can Reboot the Republican Party
Hispanics/Latinos Hold the Future of the Conservative Movement
Apr 6, 2009
The Republican Party must face the hard facts. America’s demographics are changing and for Republicans the numbers don’t look good. What once looked like the winning formula, the consolidation of fiscal conservatives, international hawks, and Southern White conservatives, is now revealing itself to be a little more than a consolidation of white male voters. In the past that consolidation along with the vote of married white women supplied enough of a core to win elections. In the future that alliance promises to be increasingly too small to win. The Republicans need to read the statistical trends on the wall and make a historic change.
The Demographics of the Hispanic Wave
The biggest problem for Republicans can be found in death rates and birthrates. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, white males make up approximately 40% of deaths recorded annually and approximately 25% of all births. The actual number of white male births has dropped by approximately 20,000 births a year over the last two decades. During the 1980’s White males represented over 35% of the population. US Census Bureau’s projections estimate that the percentage of white males in the populations will be below 30% by 2025 and below 25% by 2050. The winning formula has no future.
A key element to the winning formula is the vote of women. In 2004 according to CNN, an election that for all practical purposes ended in a tie of the popular vote, married women voted 55% for the Republican presidential candidate while 62% of unmarried women voted for the Democrat. The percentage of women unmarried has continued to increase for every decade since 1950. Another area to watch is women with bachelor’s degrees. This demographic is growing phenomenally fast. According to census.gov since 2000 the number of women over the age of 18 with degrees has increased by an average of 600,000 per year. Women with degrees vote over 55% for Democrats. In November’s election women under the age of 24 with degrees voted over 75% for the Democratic presidential candidate. These trends also work against the winning formula.
What Hispanics and Republicans Tend to Have in Common
So where do Republican’s turn? Do they return to their socially conservative base? No. That results in the certain demise of the party (I haven’t begun to address the demographics of the increasingly secular and pro-science youth). Do they step away from the cultural wars and champion fiscal conservativism? Maybe, but they will need a group of people to bring into the party. The question is what group? What demographic is growing while the Republican core is shrinking? What demographic shares many of their values on social and economic issues? The answer is Hispanics. Hispanics are very generally speaking socially conservative, anti-abortion, anti-crime, very entrepreneurial, and based on size of families and low divorce rates as reported on census.gov more pro-family than any of the Red States. Perhaps most importantly Hispanics project to be the largest racial group in America by the end of the century. Hispanics will comprise over half the population in California and Texas within 35 years. Growth in non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida over the next 35 years should make Florida a safe Democratic state unless Republicans can work to capture this constituency. The future is dim for Republican national politics with California, Texas, and possibly Florida safely in the Democratic camp.
It’s time for Republicans to stop the immigration war. It’s time to reel in the Southern conservatives and the Religious Right. It’s time to get the word out to talk radio, Lou Dobbs, and Fox News to stop the immigration diatribes. It’s time to make peace with Hispanics. Don’t let the their culture, their accents, or their allegiance to a strange sport called soccer drive you away. If the Republican Party is to survive to influence the laws that govern America business and challenge the cultural changes championed by the Left, it most have critical mass. In a democracy the most votes win. The party can’t birth its way to dominance. It must form an alliance with the formidable force of the future. It must find a way to bring Hispanics into the party. That means making room for some cultural differences, language differences, and understanding that Catholics can’t be drowned out by Evangelicals. It’s no easy task. But it demographically speaking, it may be the only option.
